Report Overview

United States Private Credit Market – Industry Trends & Forecast Report, 2031

United States Private Credit Market size was estimated at USD 1,520.7 billion in 2024. During the forecast period between 2025 and 2031, United States Private Credit Market size is projected to grow at a CAGR of 9.6% reaching a value of USD 2,888.8 billion by 2031. Prominent drivers of United States Private Credit Market include the rising demand for flexible and rapid financing solutions among corporate borrowers, increasing allocations from institutional investors seeking higher yields and portfolio diversification, and the growing appeal of private credit as an alternative to traditional bank lending. Over the past few decades, private credit has emerged as a key financing option for companies that are too large or risky for commercial banks but too small to access public debt markets. Institutional investors, including pension funds and insurance companies, are increasingly deploying capital into private credit funds due to attractive risk-adjusted returns and relative stability compared with public markets. Despite its growth, the sector remains opaque and highly interconnected, creating potential financial vulnerabilities. Borrowers are often smaller companies with higher leverage, making them sensitive to rising interest rates and economic downturns, while loans are typically illiquid and infrequently marked to market, relying on models rather than trading prices, which can obscure true credit risk. Layered leverage across borrowers, funds, and investors, along with interconnected exposures among banks, private equity-backed insurers, and pension funds, may amplify systemic risks in periods of stress. While immediate risks appear limited, continued rapid growth without enhanced oversight could increase vulnerabilities, with potential challenges including weaker underwriting standards, liquidity pressures from retail-oriented funds, and opacity in valuations, all of which could result in significant losses during economic downturns. Consequently, policymakers are encouraged to adopt a vigilant regulatory and supervisory approach, strengthen reporting standards, enhance data collection, and improve coordination across industries and borders to monitor leverage, concentration, and systemic risk, safeguarding the stability of the financial system.

Private Credit – Overview

Private credit refers to non-bank lending where funds, asset managers, or financial institutions provide debt directly to companies, often in the form of direct lending, mezzanine financing, distressed debt, or structured credit. Providers of private credit offer flexible capital solutions outside traditional banking, catering to SMEs, corporates, and specialized projects.

United States Private Credit Market

Growth Drivers

Rising Regulatory Shifts

The growth of the United States Private Credit Market has been significantly influenced by rising regulatory shifts. Post-2008 banking reforms, including Basel III and Dodd-Frank regulations, have imposed stricter capital requirements on traditional banks, limiting their ability to lend to middle-market firms. This regulatory environment has created opportunities for private credit funds to step in and fill the financing gap, providing an alternative source of capital for companies that may not meet the criteria for traditional bank loans or public debt markets. While private credit offers borrowers flexibility and speed in financing, these regulatory constraints continue to shape the market, influencing deal structures, risk management practices, and the allocation of capital. As regulatory scrutiny intensifies, private credit funds and institutional investors must navigate evolving compliance requirements while ensuring sustainable growth and maintaining robust risk oversight in the increasingly monitored financial landscape.

Challenges

Increasing Cost of Capital

United States Private Credit Market faces growth constraints from the increasing cost of capital, which has tempered its growth in recent years. Rising interest rates and wider credit spreads have elevated borrowing costs for corporate borrowers, making private credit financing less attractive compared with alternative funding sources. Higher capital costs also pressure private credit funds to maintain yield targets, potentially leading to tighter underwriting standards or reduced deal flow. As banks and institutional investors adjust to the changing cost environment, some mid-market companies may delay or scale back financing plans. These factors collectively restrain market expansion and highlight the sensitivity of private credit growth to macroeconomic conditions and funding costs.

Impact of Escalating Geopolitical Tensions on United States Private Credit Market

Escalating geopolitical tensions could significantly impact the expansion of United States Private Credit Market by creating uncertainty in global financial conditions and increasing risk premiums. Heightened geopolitical risks, including trade disputes, sanctions, or regional conflicts, can disrupt cross-border lending and investment flows, making borrowers and investors more cautious. Companies may face higher financing costs or delays in accessing capital, while private credit funds could adjust their risk appetites and diversify portfolios to mitigate exposure. Such tensions may also affect interest rates, currency fluctuations, and credit spreads, indirectly restraining market growth. Overall, geopolitical instability can reduce deal activity, elevate funding costs, and influence strategic lending decisions.

United States Private Credit Market

Segmental Coverage

United States Private Credit Market – By Instrument Type

Based on instrument type, United States Private Credit Market is divided into Direct Lending, Mezzanine Financing, Distressed/Special Situations, Structured Credit, and Unitranche Loans segments. The direct lending segment holds the highest share in the United States Private Credit Market by instrument type, serving as the backbone of the industry. Direct lending involves extending capital directly to companies, primarily in the middle-market, bypassing traditional public markets and bank intermediaries. Its prominence is driven by the ability to offer higher yields, floating interest rates, and customized deal structures, along with stronger protections for investors, such as senior secured positions and financial covenants. The segment’s growth is further supported by regulatory shifts limiting traditional bank lending, increasing institutional and retail investor participation, and the need for faster, more flexible financing solutions, making direct lending the dominant instrument in United States Private Credit Market.

United States Private Credit Market – By Borrower Type

By borrower type, United States Private Credit Market is divided into Small & Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs), Large Corporates, Real Estate Developers, Infrastructure & Project Financing, and Startups & New Economy Businesses segments. The SMEs segment holds the highest share in United States Private Credit Market by borrower type. SMEs form the backbone of the United States economy, representing 99.9% of all businesses and contributing approximately half of the country’s GDP, while generating 60–70% of jobs across OECD countries. Despite their economic significance, SMEs often face challenges accessing traditional bank financing due to strict lending criteria and regulatory constraints, making private credit a critical alternative. Private credit offers flexible, timely, and customized financing solutions that allow SMEs to secure capital without diluting ownership, supporting business expansion, hiring, and operational growth. Over the past decade, private credit assets serving SMEs have surged from USD 400 billion to USD 1 trillion, highlighting the sector’s growing importance. Business Development Companies (BDCs) and private debt funds have played a central role in channeling this capital through mezzanine loans, asset-based lending, and invoice financing. The popularity of private credit has been further boosted by post-2008 financial crisis risk aversion among banks and ongoing regulatory reforms limiting traditional lending. As banks face rising capital requirements and regulatory pressures, and as fintech platforms streamline access to capital, SMEs are expected to maintain their dominant position in the United States Private Credit Market, supported by strong investor appetite for alternative lending solutions and continued growth in private credit deployment.

United States Private Credit Market – By End Use

On the basis of end use, United States Private Credit Market is segmented into Real Estate, Infrastructure (Energy, Transport, and Utilities), Manufacturing & Industrials, Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals, Technology & Startups, and Consumer & Retail.

Competitive Landscape

Major players operating in United States Private Credit Market include Apollo Global Management, Blackstone, Ares Management, KKR & Co., Golub Capital, Oaktree Capital Management, HPS Investment Partners, and Bain Capital Credit. To further enhance their market share, these companies employ various strategies, including mergers and acquisitions, partnerships, joint ventures, license agreements, and new product launches.

Recent Developments

• In May 2025 - Monroe Capital, Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation (SMBC), and MA Asset Management formed a joint venture to invest up to USD 1.7 billion in senior secured loans for United States middle-market borrowers. Leveraging Monroe’s direct lending platform, SMBC’s sponsor finance expertise, and MA Financial’s specialty credit capabilities, the partnership aims to deliver scalable, differentiated capital solutions in an underserved market segment.

• In February 2025 - State Street and Apollo launched the SPDR SSGA Apollo IG Public & Private Credit ETF (PRIV), a pioneering fund combining public and private credit. The ETF aims to invest at least 80% in investment-grade debt, with private credit comprising 10–35% of assets. Private credit’s illiquidity is addressed through Apollo’s buyback mechanism, ensuring ETF liquidity. While similar strategies exist in bank loan ETFs, this offering marks a significant step in making private credit accessible to retail investors.

Scope of the Report

By Instrument Type

• Direct Lending

• Mezzanine Financing

• Distressed/Special Situations

• Structured Credit

• Unitranche Loans

By Borrower Type

• Small & Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs)

• Large Corporates

• Real Estate Developers

• Infrastructure & Project Financing

• Startups & New Economy Businesses

By End Use

• Real Estate

• Infrastructure (Energy, Transport, Utilities)

• Manufacturing & Industrials

• Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals

• Technology & Startups

• Consumer & Retail

1. Research Framework
   1. Research Objective
   2. Product Overview
   3. Market Segmentation
2. Executive Summary
3. United States Private Credit Market Insights
   1. Industry Value Chain Analysis
   2. DROC Analysis
      1. Drivers
         1. Rising Regulatory Shifts
         2. Increasing Yields Attracting Institutional Capital
         3. Growing Demand from Institutional Investors for Portfolio Diversification
      2. Restraints
         1. Increasing Credit Quality Concerns and Hidden Defaults
         2. Increasing Cost of Capital
      3. Opportunities
         1. Growing Innovation in Lending Products and Structures
         2. Increasing Integration into Institutional Investment Portfolios
      4. Challenges
         1. Increasing Market Volatility and Interest Rate Pressures
         2. Growing Constraints on Capital Deployment and Fundraising
   3. Technological Advancements/Recent Developments
   4. Regulatory Framework
   5. Porter’s Five Forces Analysis
      1. Bargaining Power of Suppliers
      2. Bargaining Power of Buyers
      3. Threat of New Entrants
      4. Threat of Substitutes
      5. Intensity of Rivalry
4. United States Private Credit Market: Marketing Strategies
5. United States Private Credit Market: Pricing Analysis
6. United States Private Credit Market Overview
   1. Market Size & Forecast, 2019–2031
      1. By Value (USD Billion)
   2. Market Share & Forecast
      1. By Instrument Type
         1. Direct Lending
         2. Mezzanine Financing
         3. Distressed/Special Situations
         4. Structured Credit
         5. Unitranche Loans
      2. By Borrower Type
         1. Small & Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs)
         2. Large Corporates
         3. Real Estate Developers
         4. Infrastructure & Project Financing
         5. Startups & New-Economy Businesses
      3. By End Use
         1. Real Estate
         2. Infrastructure (Energy, Transport, Utilities)
         3. Manufacturing & Industrials
         4. Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals
         5. Technology & Startups
         6. Consumer & Retail
7. Competitive Landscape
   1. List of Key Players and Their Offerings
   2. United States Private Credit Market Share Analysis, 2024
      1. Competitive Benchmarking, By Operating Parameters
   3. Key Strategic Developments (Mergers, Acquisitions, Partnerships)
8. Impact of Escalating Geopolitical Tensions on United States Private Credit Market
9. Company Profiles (Company Overview, Financial Matrix, Competitive Landscape, Key Personnel, Key Competitors, Contact Address, Strategic Outlook, SWOT Analysis)
   1. Apollo Global Management
   2. Blackstone
   3. Ares Management
   4. KKR & Co.
   5. Golub Capital
   6. Oaktree Capital Management
   7. HPS Investment Partners
   8. Bain Capital Credit
   9. Other Prominent Players
10. Key Strategic Recommendations
11. Research Methodology
    1. Qualitative Research
       1. Primary & Secondary Research
    2. Quantitative Research
    3.  Market Breakdown & Data Triangulation
       1.  Secondary Research
       2.  Primary Research
    4.  Breakdown of Primary Research Respondents, By Region
    5.  Assumptions & Limitations

*Financial information of non-listed companies can be provided as per availability.

**The segmentation and the companies are subject to modifications based on in-depth secondary research for the final deliverable.

List of Figures

Figure 1       United States Private Credit Market Segmentation                     

Figure 2       United States Private Credit Market Value Chain Analysis           

Figure 3       Company Market Share Analysis, 2024

Figure 4       United States Private Credit Market Size, By Value (USD Billion), 2019–2031           

Figure 5       United States Private Credit Market Share, By Instrument Type, By Value, 2019–2031

Figure 6       United States Private Credit Market Share, By Borrower Type, By Value, 2019–2031         

Figure 7       United States Private Credit Market Share, By End Use, By Value, 2019–2031

Figure 8       United States Private Credit Market Share, By Instrument Type, By Value, 2019–2031

Figure 9       United States Private Credit Market Share, By Borrower Type, By Value, 2019–2031

Figure 7       United States Private Credit Market Share, By End Use, By Value, 2019–2031

List of Tables

Table 1         United States Private Credit Market Size, By Value (USD Billion), 2019–2031

Table 2         United States Private Credit Market Share, By Instrument Type , By Value, 2019–2031                    

Table 3         United States Private Credit Market Share, By Borrower Type, By Value, 2019–2031

Table 4         United States Private Credit Market Share, By End Use, By Value, 2019–2031

Table 5         United States Private Credit Market Share, By Instrument Type, By Value, 2019–2031

Table 6         United States Private Credit Market Share, By Borrower Type, By Value, 2019–2031

Table 7         United States Private Credit Market Share, By End Use, By Value, 2019–2031

Table 8         Apollo Global Management Company Overview

Table 9         Apollo Global Management Financial Overview

Table 10       Blackstone Company Overview

Table 11       Blackstone Financial Overview

Table 12       Ares Management Company Overview

Table 13       Ares Management Financial Overview

Table 14       KKR & Co. Company Overview

Table 15       KKR & Co. Financial Overview

Table 16       Golub Capital Company Overview

Table 17       Golub Capital Financial Overview

Table 18       Oaktree Capital Management Company Overview

Table 19       Oaktree Capital Management Financial Overview

Table 20       HPS Investment Partners Company Overview

Table 21       HPS Investment Partners Financial Overview

Table 22       Bain Capital Credit Company Overview

Table 23       Bain Capital Credit Financial Overview